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Prediction for CME (2013-06-28T01:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-06-28T01:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/402/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-06-30T10:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-07-01T00:00Z
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2013 Jun 28 1234 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30628
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jun 2013, 1206UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Jun 2013 until 30 Jun 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 007
COMMENT:Solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours, featuring three
C flares, from NOAA AR 11777 and 11778. The brightest flare was a C7.3
flare released by NOAA AR 11778 with peak time at 03:37 UT on June 28. More
C flares are possible within the next 48 hours, with a chance for an M
flare. NOAA AR 11777 released two CMEs (observed by LASCO C2 at 20:37 on
June 27 and 02:00 on June 28). The first CME is not expected to be geo-
effective, while there is a slight chance for a glancing blow from the
second CME on July 1st. ACE detected a shock in the solar wind at 13:53 UT
on June 27, probably due to some unidentified CME. The solar wind speed
jumped from about 380 km/s to around 460 km/s, and has currently decreased
again to 365 km/s. The IMF jumped from 3 to 8 nT, has subsequently further
risen to 12 nT near 2h UT on June 28, and has since been gradually
decreasing, with current values around 9 nT. Geomagnetic activity was at
quiet to active levels (K Dourbes between 1 and 4) during the past 24
hours. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes

Lead Time: 46.10 hour(s)
Difference: -13.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-06-28T12:34Z

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